User:Alter Eagle/Birdseed Math

Question: Bird Seed increases the chances of the New York Millennials (and Shirai McElroy ) being pecked free if Shelled and under Birds weather. Does having bird seed increase the number of times Event 33 (birds circling, no shelled player) occurs?

Tentative answer is no:

In Season 12, the Mills played 6 games in Birds weather. Four games had two Circlings, one had zero, and the fifteen-inning game on D94 had three - for an average Circlings Per Inning of 0.181. (Taking out the D13 game gives us 0.218, which is.... still not great).

In comparison, there were 61 other Birds games during S12, not involving the Mills, which had an average CPI of 0.250.

Trying to compare the Mills' CPI versus the rest of the League's CPI would take way too long, but I did bother to calculate the Mills' Season 13 CPI, which is 0.260 from 10 games in Birds weather.

So still. Not great!

Additional insight by SIBR buddies indicates that more so than whatever Bird Seed is doing, Fortification (the Ballpark stat associated with likelihood of weather events) plays a bigger role.