SIBR:Incineration mechanics

Incineration events can be located in the RNG stream using the stats of the replacement player. TODO Write a page about locating player generation events from stats and link it here. Every time an incineration replacement is generated an extremely small random number appears nearby in the RNG stream. We deduce that this roll corresponds to the check to see whether the player is incinerated. The location of the incineration check roll varies by season:

Seasons	Details
1-6	Immediately before the replacement is generated
7-10	Immediately after the replacement is generated*
12-15	Before the replacement generation, with 1 unexplained roll between incineration check and replacement generation
16-24	Before the replacement generation, with 2 unexplained rolls between incineration check and replacement generation

* If the incinerated player was Unstable, there is one additional roll between the replacement generation and the incineration check. We theorize that this is the roll to determine which player receives the Unstable chain.

By examining the magnitude of the failed incineration rolls (i.e. the rolls that caused the player to be incinerated, which are exactly the rolls we can observe) we can approximate the incineration threshold per season -- aka, The Dial. Note that The Dial is not the only factor in the number of players incinerated each season. The number of games played in incineration-eligible weather (Eclipse, Supernova Eclipse) is an equal factor, and Unstable players also increase incineration rates.

The Expansion Era introduced stadiums, which affect weather event frequency with their Fortification level. At least for incinerations, this appears to be implemented by modifying the threshold for determining whether a weather event occurs.

Our best guess at the thresholds for incineration per season is:

Seasons	Value	Details
1	N/A	Before Eclipse
2	0.000075	All weather was eclipse, so despite the very low threshold, many players were incinerated
3	0.001/0.0005/0.0004	Threshold values indicate that the rate started at 0.001, was changed to 0.0005 after Day 5, and may have been changed to 0.0004 at some point after day 23
4-6	0.00015
7	Not enough data.	There were only two natural incinerations in Season 7, both with very low rolls. However, two values is not enough to deduce a threshold.
8-10	0.00025
11	N/A	No Eclipse. The only weathers this season were Sun 2 and Black Hole
12-23	0.0001-0.0004	Ranging from 0.0001 with a fortification of 1 to 0.0004 with a fortification of 0. With default fortification (0.5) the threshold is 0.00025