SIBR:Activation Rates

This work-in-progress page catalogs the rates of activation of various non-baseball Blaseball mechanics. Most mechanics are presumed to be eligible to occur on every RNG-generated game event (that is, game events that are not predetermined by the flow of the game, such as "Let's Go!" and "[Batter Name] batting for the [Team]"), as long as their prerequisites are met (for example, a player may only enter a Secret Base when they are on second base). SIBR's RNG research has confirmed that this is true in the case of incineration. Most of the time only one of these mechanics may occur per game event, and so some events may preempt others. The priority order between different types of event is not known.

Each Activation is determined using an RNG roll of a number between 0 and 1 which is then compared against an Activation Threshold. Typically for an Activation to occur this means that the roll is below the Activation Threshold.

It should be assumed that each player stat listed does include any stat multipliers, but not vibes unless explicitly stated.

Weathers

Many weathers have a random chance to cause events. Weathers which do not cause random events (for example, Black Hole) are not listed here, nor are weathers whose effects have never been observed (for example, Overcast).

Incineration

The details of the incineration mechanics have been derived by reverse-engineering the RNG. Since season 8, there has been approximately an 0.025% chance of incineration on every RNG-generated game event in Eclipse weather under average fortification.

Although we know that the Incineration Rate was likely changed between every season a single threshold formula is currently successful with no outliers. The Activation Rate as per above was 0.00045 - 0.0004* Ballpark Fortification.

Peanuts

The Activation Threshold for all known seasons (12-19) was 0.0005 - 0.000325 * Ballpark Fortification. 0.0006 - 0.00055 * Ballpark Fortification was also successful.

Birds

SIBR's RNG research found that prior to season 7 there was a 5% chance for a bird message to occur. If a bird event occurs, there is an equal chance for each of 19 different messages to be displayed.

After season 7 a new message began to appear, beginning with "The Birds circle ...". If a Shelled player is present in the game, the message ends "they peck [Player Name] free!" and the player is unshelled. Otherwise, the message ends "but they don't find what they're looking for."Template:Citation needed

Feedback

The Activation Rate for all known seasons (Seasons 12-19) was 0.0001 - 0.0001 * Ballpark Fortification.

A target player is selected before the Activation Rate (either the Active Batter or the Active Pitcher) which is weighted 60% to be the Batter and 40% to be the Pitcher. If that target player has either the FLICKERING or FLIICKERRRIIING Mod they instead have a unique threshold.

No specific solution for this amount has been determined but manual investigation shows this to likely be: FLICKERING: 0.02 or 0.025 FLIICKERRRIIING: Somewhere between 0.055-0.075

Reverb

This section is not yet written.

Coffee

The Activation Rate for Coffee in all known seasons (12-19) was 0.02 - 0.012 * Ballpark Fortification

Coffee 2

The Activation Rate for Coffee 2 in all known seasons (12-19) was 0.01875 - 0.0075 * Ballpark Fortification

Coffee 3s

This section is not yet written.

Flooding

Flooding is the weather with the most known changes in it's formula. The Activation Rate for Flooding was: Season 12: 0.016 - 0.001 * Ballpark Fortification Season 13: 0.03 - 0.0245 * Ballpark Fortification Season 14: 0.019 - 0.020 * Ballpark Fortification Season 15-17: 0.013 - 0.012 * Ballpark Fortification Season 18-19: 0.0145 - 0.01 * Ballpark Fortification

Salmon

The Activation Rate for Salmon in Seasons 15 & 16 was: 0.15 - 0.1 * Ballpark Fortification In Season 17 this was changed to 0.1375 - 0.1 * Ballpark Fortification

Glitter

The Activation Rate for Glitter in Season 16 was: 0.007 - 0.0055* Ballpark Fortification This likely also applies to Season 17, however current data only contains failures to activate so this can't be sufficiently verified.

Polarity

The Activation Rate for Polarity in Season 19 was: 0.035 - 0.025 * Ballpark Fortification

Blooddrain

The Activation Rate for Salmon in Seasons 12 through 16 was: 0.00065 - 0.001 * Ballpark Fortification In Season 17 this was changed to: 0.00125 - 0.00125 * Ballpark Fortification Note: The threshold for a Siphon Activation used the same Activation Roll as Blooddrain, and would active on any roll between 0.0025 and the Blooddrain Threshold.

Night

This section is not yet written.

Supernova Eclipse

This section is not yet written.

Snow

This section is not yet written.

Player and Team Modifications

Acidic

This section is not yet written.

Base Instincts

The Activation Rate in all known Seasons (12-19) was a flat 0.02. The Roll to determine which base the player would walk to (2nd or 3rd) was determined by multiplying two rolls together, with a threshold of 0.5.

Charm

The Activation Rate of Charm in Season 12-17 was 0.015 + 0.02* Ballpark Mysticism In Season 18 and 19 it was changed to 0.014 + 0.006 * Ballpark Mysticism

Debt / Debt / Debted / Refinanced Debt / Consolidated Debt

This section is not yet written.

Echo

This section is not yet written.

Electric

Electric has has numerous Activation Rates. Season 12-15: 0.05 + 0.1 * Ballpark Mysticism Season 16: 0.0325 + 0.1 * Ballpark Mysticism Season 17: 0.025 + 0.1 * Ballpark Mysticism Season 18: 0.02085 + 0.1 * Ballpark Mysticism

Elsewhere

(Referring to players returning from Elsewhere.) This section is not yet written.

Scattered

(Referring to players regaining letters of their name.) This section is not yet written.

Firey

This section is not yet written.

Fire Eater

It is widely believed that fire eaters eat fire more frequently than can be explained just by normal incineration chances. This section is not yet written.

Fliickerrriiing

See #Feedback.

Friend of Crows

The Activation Roll for Friend of Crows in Seasons 12-19 was 0.0255.

Haunted

The Activation Roll for Haunted in Season 12 and 13 was a flat 0.2. In Season 14 this change to 0.2 * Ballpark Mysticism, with a cap of 0.95, meaning that any threshold above 0.95 was treated as exactly 0.95 so the highest possible activation chance was 95%.

In Seasons 18 and 19 this was changed to 0.002 * Ballpark Mysticism

Heist Expert

This section is not yet written.

Honey Roasted

(Referring to players shelling opponents in Peanuts weather.) The Activation Rate for Pitchers with this mod in all known seasons was a flat 0.001

Mild

The Activation Roll for Mild from Season 12 through to Season 19 was: 0.0005 + (0.004 * Ballpark Mysticism)

Observed

(Referring to the chance of being Redacted at the end of a coffee game.) This section is not yet written.

Peanut Rain

This may not be knowable. This section is not yet written.

Power Chaaarge

This section is not yet written.

Power Chaarge

This section is not yet written.

Psychic

This section is not yet written.

Returned

(Referring to the chance of being called back to the Void.) This section is not yet written.

Reverberating

See #Reverb.

Roamin'

This section is not yet written.

Seeker

This section is not yet written.

Shelled

See #Peanuts.

Siphon

See #Blooddrain.

Sponge

This section is not yet written.

Firey

This section is not yet written.

Trader

This section is not yet written.

Traitor

This section is not yet written.

Triple Threat

(Referring to the chance of losing it at the end of each 3rd inning. The mod description says 33.3%, but this could be verified, and the effect of Sweetener could be derived.) This section is not yet written.

Undertaker

(The mod description implies it is not random, but I remember otherwise.) This section is not yet written.

Party Time

The Activation Rate in all known seasons was 0.0055. This was then followed by a roll to determine which team would party. Both these rolls would occur regardless of if any Teams in the match were currently in Party Time.

Notes: The party rate is per team. That means a team in party time has the same chance of partying regardless of whether their opponent is also in party time. Proof: Party rate is about 0.6 parties/game when 1 team is in party time and 1.2 when 2 teams are. More info in the SIBR discord.

Afterparty

This section is not yet written.

Flickering

See #Feedback.

Saboteur

This section is not yet written.

Unstable

See #Eclipse.

Stadium Modifications

Several stadium modifications allow players to perform actions with random chance. Modifications which do not cause random events are not listed here, nor are modifications whose effects have never been observed.

Big Buckets

The Activation Rate for Big Buckets was 0.01 + 0.14 * Batter Moxie.

Echo Chamber

The Activation Rate in Season 14-17 was a flat 0.0055. In Season 18 it was changed to 0.013.

Grind Rail

This section is not yet written.

Hoops

This section is not yet written.

Hotel Motel

Further investigation is required but at current in all known seasons the Activation Rate was 0.0055.

Peanut Mister

The only eligible targets for Peanut Mister were players with a Peanut Allergy from the following list: Active Batter, Active Pitcher, the batting teams lineup, and the fielders. An Activation Roll would always occur regardless of eligible targets, but no roll to select a target would occur if there were no eligible targets The Activation Rate of Peanut Mister in all known Seasons (12-19) was a flat 0.0005

PsychoAcoustics

This section is not yet written.

Salmon Cannons

This section is not yet written.

Secret Base

This section is not yet written.

Smithy

The Activation Rate in Seasons 12-19 was a flat 0.0004. If successful a player with an item that can be repaired would randomly be selected as the target. A roll would then occur to determine which item to repair, regardless of if the player had multiple items or multiple damaged items.

Sweetener

This section is not yet written.

Tunnels

This section is not yet written.

Other Mechanics

Consumer Attacks

This section is not yet written.